CONVERGENCE OF ADAPTIVE TIME-VARYING MARKOV CHAINS UNDER DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS

Authors

  • V. Adah Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi, Nigeria Author
  • O. Peter Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi, Nigeria Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.60787/tnamp.v25.743

Keywords:

Non-homogeneous Markov chain, Weak ergodicity, Dynamic environment, Strong ergodicity, Dobrushin coefficient

Abstract

This study develops an adaptive time-varying Markov chain model for stochastic systems operating in dynamic environments. The model combines adaptive parameter updating with non-homogeneous transition probabilities to capture learning and environmental changes. Using weak ergodicity, strong ergodicity, and the Dobrushin coefficient, convergence properties are established, demonstrating the existence of a unique stationary distribution and asymptotic stability under suitable conditions. An illustrative numerical example validates the theoretical results under a periodic environment. The proposed framework extends adaptive and non-homogeneous Markov chain theory and provides a basis for modeling evolving stochastic systems.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Andrieu, C., & Moulines, É. (2006). On the ergodicity properties of some adaptive MCMC algorithms. The Annals of Applied Probability, 16(3), 1462-1505.

Atchade, Y. F., Fort, G., Moulines, É., & Priouret, P. (2011). Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo: Theory and methods. In Bayesian Time Series Models (pp. 32–51). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511984679.003

Brown, A., & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal (2024). Weak convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo. arXiv. arXiv:2406.00820.

Dobrushin, R. L. (1956). Central limit theorem for non-stationary Markov chains. Theory of Probability and Its Applications, 1(1), 65–80.

Erb, R. (2023). Bounds on mixing time for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains. arXiv.

Fort, G., Moulines, É., & Priouret, P. (2011). Convergence of adaptive and interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The Annals of Statistics, 39(6), 3262–3289.

Golomoziy, V., & Moskanova, O. (2023). Polynomial recurrence of time-inhomogeneous Markov chains. Austrian Journal of Statistics, 52(Special Issue), 40–53.

Haario, H., Saksman, E., & Tamminen, J. (2001). An adaptive Metropolis algorithm. Bernoulli, 7(2), 223–242. https://doi.org/10.2307/3318737

Hajnal, J., & Maurice, S. B,(1958). Weak ergodicity in non-homogeneous Markov chains. Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 54(2), 233–246.

Jin, S. S., Ju, H., & Jung, H. J. (2019). Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian inference: Recent advances and comparative study. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 15(11), 1548–1565. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1628077

Kushner, H. J., & Yin, G. G. (2003). Stochastic approximation and recursive algorithms and applications (2nd ed.). Springer.

Maire, F., Friel, N., Mira, A., & Adrian E. Raftery (2019). Adaptive incremental mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo. Journal of Comp. and Graphical Statistics, 28(4), 790–805.

Meyn, S. P., & Tweedie, R. L. (2009). Markov chains and stochastic stability (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press.

Moumeni, N. (2024). Quantitative merging for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains in nondecreasing environments via functional inequalities. arXivhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11432

Norris, J. R. (1998). Markov chains. Cambridge University Press.

Oçafrain, W. (2023). An ergodic theorem for asymptotically periodic time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, with application to quasi-stationarity with moving boundaries. Advances in Applied Probability. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2023.53

Robbins, H., & Monro, S. (1951). A stochastic approximation method. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22(3), 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586

Roberts, G. O., & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal (2007). Coupling and ergodicity of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Journal of Applied Probability, 44(2), 458–475.

Seneta, E. (2006). Non-negative matrices and Markov chains. Springer.

Vassiliou, P.C. G. (2024). Estimation–calibration of continuous-time non-homogeneous Markov chains with finite state space. Mathematics, 12(5), Article 668.

Vassiliou, P.C. G. (2024b). Strong ergodicity in nonhomogeneous Markov systems with chronological order. Mathematics, 12(5), Article 660.

Damasio, B. & Nicolau, J. (2024). Time-inhomogeneous multivariate Markov chains: Detecting and testing multiple structural breaks occurring at unknown dates. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 181, Article 114478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.114478

Wolfowitz, J. (1963). Products of indecomposable, aperiodic, stochastic matrices.

Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, 14, 733–737.

Downloads

Published

2026-08-28

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

CONVERGENCE OF ADAPTIVE TIME-VARYING MARKOV CHAINS UNDER DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS. (2026). The Transactions of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics, 25, 171-181. https://doi.org/10.60787/tnamp.v25.743

Share

Similar Articles

1-10 of 40

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.