MODELING THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL ON POWER OUTAGES IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Maintenance, Correlation Coefficient, Power Outages, Rainfall, ANOVAAbstract
The seasonal variation of the weather condition impacts humans' economic and sociological activities in diverse ways. This study sought to model the relationship between the intensity of rainfall during rainy and dry seasons on the frequency of forced outages in a typical distribution system in Nigeria. Regression and descriptive statistical techniques were used to analyze the rainfall and outage data of a distribution system for the period 2015 – 2021. The developed model demonstrated a strong relationship (with R2 value of 0.81) between the precipitation level and power outages in Nigeria. Findings showed that a rainfall depth of 10.8mm could cause a forced outage. The highest interruption period was found to occur in July and October, coinciding with the high intensity of rainfall, while the fewest outages occurred in December and January during the dry season. It is expected that the findings of this research will guide institutions, industries, power-dependent individuals, system regulators, and engineers in formulating and effecting efficient season-based contingency and maintenance policies for their operations.
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