APPLICATION OF MANN KENDALL AND ARIMA MODEL IN DETECTING AND MODELING THE TRENDS IN UNDER-FIVE DEATHS
Keywords:
Time Series, Mann-Kendall Test, ARIMA, Under-Five DeathsAbstract
This research work assesses the levels and trends in Under-five mortality in Nigeria. Yearly under-five deaths in Nigeria were sourced from the WHO-World Development Index site and analyzed using Statgraphic software. The data covers a period of 52 years, from 1969 to 2020. The two-sided Mann-Kendall test was used to determine whether a statistically significant monotonic upward or downward trend exists in the data. Since the calculated P-value is less than 0.01, the presence of a trend has been detected at the 1.0% significance level. An autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA (0, 2, 2)] model has been selected as the best model for the series. The model assumes that the best forecast for future data is given by a parametric model relating the most recent data value to previous data values and previous noise. The research recommended that even though there is a decline in mortality rate, steps need to be taken to drastically bring the number of deaths to the barest minimum.
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