MODELING AND FORECASTING LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE SIXTY-FIVE IN THE POPULATION OF NIGERIA USING AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS
Keywords:
Forecasting, Differencing, Stationarity, ARIMA Models, Survival to age 65, Life ExpectancyAbstract
The study aims to determine an appropriate empirical model for forecasting the survival of age 65 years old male and female population of Nigeria to assess its future trend up to the year 2030. We applied several Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to the survival to age 65 population-based secondary times series data from 1960-2020. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was used to select the model that has the lowest value of AIC. The proposed model and forecasted values were validated and found to be adequate in predicting the survival of the age 65 male and female populations on a year-by-year basis. From the forecasted values we discovered that the survival of the age 65 male and female populations will increase approximately by 7.8% and 8.05% respectively from 2021 to 2030 under the notion that there will be no epidemic disease that will result in an increase in mortality rate in the forecasted years.
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